There have been repeated policy pronouncements raising the bar for Zimbabwe’s economic target as getting into the upper middle income economic status. As they say in African folktale, its easier to speak than do, the policy question becomes- is Zimbabwe on course to achieve an upper middle economy status? For starters, what targets or indicators would mark Zimbabwe’s state as a middle-income economy? Would people be happier, and earning more? What Gross National Income (GNI) growth rate does Zimbabwe need to achieve this status in the next five years?
The Eastern Caucus (TECA), Zimbabwe’s leading liberal economic think-tank is hosting a high-level conference on November 12th in Harare. The conference squarely focuses on this question.
Scope of the November 12th Competitiveness Conference
Zimbabwe is at a pivotal juncture in its national development journey. The expiry of the National Development Strategy 1 (NDS1) in December 2025 ushers in the formulation of its successor, the National Development Strategy 2 (NDS2), which will guide the nation from January 2026 towards the realization of Vision 2030. This vision—transforming Zimbabwe into an upper-middle-income economy by 2030—demands bold policy choices, innovative strategies, and broad-based economic transformation. The World Bank categorizes an Upper Middle-Income economy as one with a current Gross National Income (GNI) per capita, calculated using the Atlas method that is between $4,496 and $13,935[1]. As of 2023, Zimbabwe’s current GNI per capita using the Atlas method is USD 1,740. Using the compound annual growth rate (CAGR), to achieve the status of an Upper Middle-Income economy by 2030, Zimbabwe would need to attain an annual GNI per capita Atlas method growth rate of 14.5%.
This reality underscores the urgency of rethinking Zimbabwe’s economic structure, growth patterns, challenges, and opportunities within both domestic and global contexts. The biggest motivator is that, at the apex, the Presidential level, there is policy clarity that Zimbabwe has to transform the ease of doing business and taxation to ensure prosperity. The Zimbabwe Economic Competitiveness Conference 2025 is therefore convened to provide a platform for stakeholders to deliberate on the structural reforms, policy innovations, and competitiveness strategies necessary to feed into and shape NDS2. The Conference will interrogate Zimbabwe’s economic structure, growth patterns, and challenges within global and regional contexts, while identifying practical pathways to unlock investment, enhance productivity, and accelerate inclusive growth. Ultimately, the Conference aims to contribute directly to the design of NDS2 in ways that ensure Zimbabwe’s economic transformation and competitiveness, in line with the aspirations of Vision 2030.
Is it achievable?
Sceptics may argue that sustaining an average annual GNI per capita Atlas method growth rate of 14% is unrealistic. However, global experience shows that such high growth rates are not without precedent. For example, several countries, including Rwanda, Ethiopia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and India, have achieved an average GNI per capita growth rate of 14% or higher using the Atlas method. These nations illustrate that significant growth is possible through effective macroeconomic policies, strategic investments, and a focus on competitiveness that can leapfrog an economy at extraordinary speed. Zimbabwe has the potential to reach a similar growth rate by 2030.
This reality makes the Zimbabwe Economic Competitiveness Conference 2025 all the more important. It is not merely a dialogue, but a policy-shaping platform that provides inputs into the design of the National Development Strategy 2 (NDS2). By interrogating the sufficiency of current policies, their direction, scope, and speed, the Conference seeks to provide concrete policy advice on how Zimbabwe can re-engineer its economic structures and competitiveness to achieve sustained double-digit growth.
The Conference, therefore, plays a catalytic role in aligning government, private sector, academia, and civil society in a shared developmental trajectory that keeps Vision 2030 alive and achievable.
The Minister of Industry and Commerce, Honourable Mangaliso Ndhlovu is expected to officially open the conference.