The Eastern Caucus (TECa) is organising an international economic competitiveness conference in November 2025. The conference is scheduled to be held in Harare, and will be graced by senior government officials. The private sector, academia, the media, economists, and economic development experts who worked on the Rwandan miracle will also attend.
Zimbabwe is at a pivotal juncture in its national development journey.
This vision—transforming Zimbabwe into an upper-middle-income economy by 2030—demands bold policy choices, innovative strategies, and broad-based economic transformation. This requires continuous debates to ensure that whatever Zimbabwe develops as a road map, develops aeronautic precision such that the country hits all its developmental aspirations.
The World Bank categorizes an Upper Middle-Income economy as one with a current Gross National Income (GNI) per capita, calculated using the Atlas method that is between $4,496 and $13,9351. As of 2023, Zimbabwe’s current GNI per capita using the Atlas method is USD 1,740. Using the compound annual growth rate (CAGR), to achieve the status of an Upper Middle-Income economy by 2030, Zimbabwe would need to attain an annual GNI per capita Atlas method growth rate of 14.5%.
This reality underscores the urgency of rethinking Zimbabwe’s economic structure, growth patterns, challenges, and opportunities within both domestic and global contexts.
The biggest motivator is that, at the apex, at the Presidential level, there is policy clarity that Zimbabwe has to transform the ease of doing business and taxation to ensure prosperity. The Zimbabwe Economic Competitiveness Conference 2025 is therefore convened to provide a platform for stakeholders to deliberate on the structural reforms, policy innovations, and competitiveness strategies necessary to feed into and shape NDS2.
The Conference will interrogate Zimbabwe’s economic structure, growth patterns, and challenges within global and regional contexts, while identifying practical pathways to unlock investment, enhance productivity, and accelerate inclusive growth. Ultimately, the Conference aims to contribute directly to the design of NDS2 in ways that ensure Zimbabwe’s economic transformation and competitiveness, in line with the aspirations of Vision 2030.
Is an upper-middle-income economy achievable?
Sceptics may argue that sustaining an average annual GNI per capita Atlas method growth rate of 14% is unrealistic. However, global experience shows that such high growth rates are not without precedent. For example, several countries, including Rwanda, Ethiopia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and India, have achieved an average GNI per capita growth rate of 14% or higher using the Atlas method. These nations illustrate that significant growth is possible through effective macroeconomic policies, strategic investments, and a focus on competitiveness that can leapfrog an economy at extraordinary speed. Zimbabwe has the potential to reach a similar growth rate by 2030. Its work is cut out!